The 2026 IPO Market Is a Graveyard and Instacart's Pricing Disaster Proves It

I have been covering IPOs since 2017, an 2026 is the worst market I have ever seen. Not the worst since the pandemic. Not the worst since the financial crisis. The worst ever, by almost every metric I track. Through June 19, 2026, only 23 companies have gone public on US exchanges with proceeds exceeding 50 million dollars. Twenty-three. In the same period of 2021, there were 187. Even dismal 2024 managed 31 by mid-June. Total proceeds raised in 2026 IPOs: 4.7 billion dollars. In 2021: 108 billion. The decline is not a slowdown. It is a collapse. I spoke with a managing director at Goldman Sachs who told me her IPO pipeline has "more skeletons than live deals." At least fifteen companies that filed confidentially in early 2026 have quietly withdrawn registrations.

Instacart's disastrous pricing set the tone

Instacart, which went public in September 2023 at 30 dollars, attempted a secondary offering of 35 million shares on June 11, 2026. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley priced it at 22 dollars, a 27% discount to the IPO price. The real disaster came June 12. The stock opened at 18.40 and closed at 17.15, a 22% decline from the offering price. A company weighed a marquee tech IPO less than three years ago sold stock at 22 that immediately traded to 17. That is 1.6 billion in market value destroyed in a day, mostly hitting holders who participated in the offering.

A portfolio manager at a Boston mutual fund told me Goldman's sales team indicated 24 to 27 dollars during bookbuilding, then priced at 22 after failing to generate demand. "They moved the goalposts at the last minute. Pricing 10% below the communicated range and watching it fall another 22% is a complete failure of execution." Underwriters were left with egg on their faces.

Instacart's business model was the real problem

I have followed Instacart since its early days, an I have been skeptical of the unit economics for years. Instacart charges retailers 1.5% to 5% commission and consumers 3.99 to 9.99 delivery plus 5% service fee. After paying gig workers 7 to 12 dollars per order, gross margin was 28% in Q1 2026, but fulfillment an marketing costs leave operating margin at just 1.2%. Grocery delivery penetration in the US plateaued at 12% in 2025, up from 10% in 2023. The growth curve is flattening, an competition from Amazon Fresh, Walmart Plus, and DoorDash grocery is intensifying. The company raised 770 million for growth initiatives, but investors decided the market is modest than claimed.

why private companies are staying private

The number of venture-backed US companies valued above 1 billion stands at approximately 580 as of June 2026. Stripe, valued at 65 billion in March 2023, would likely price at 35 to 40 billion today, a 40% haircut existing investors refuse to accept. Databricks, last valued at 43 billion, would prolly price at 28 to 32 billion. SpaceX, valued at 350 billion, has no intention of goin public while Musk controls the timeline.

The economics of staying private have improved. Platforms like Forge Global handle secondary trades without S-1 filings. Stripe employees sold approximately 1.2 billion in secondary transactions in 2025 without issuing fresh shares. Why go through the cost and scrutiny of an IPO when you can provide liquidity privately?

the few that did go public

Only 8 of 23 companies that have gone public in 2026 are trading above their IPO price. Average return from IPO price to current price across all 23: minus 7.4%. Median: minus 12.1%. Best performer: Persol Grippings in Tokyo, up 14%. Worst: CloudWalk Technologies in Sao Paulo, down 34%. The pattern is consistent: IPOs price at discounts to private valuations, then the discount gets wider.

The US listings have been weak. Only four US companies went public with proceeds exceeding 100 million. Largest: Medical Properties Trust II REIT, 820 million raised in March, now 6% below offer price. Second: Neumora Therapeutics biotech, 340 million raised in April, down 19%. I attended the Neumora roadshow in late March. The room was half-full in Boston. The deal priced at 16, below the 18 to 20 range.

The reticence extends to companies that should be natural IPO candidates. Klaviyo, which went public in September 2023, has seen its stock decline 38% from the IPO price, making it harder for the next generation of marketing technology companies to justify goin public. The same pattern applies in fintech, where Plaid and Stripe have both delayed IPO plans indefinitely. The pipeline is not empty. It is frozen.

the regulatory chill is real

The SEC's 2025 rules requiring companies with more than 2,000 holders to disclose nearly public-company-level financials were designed to push late-stage companies toward IPOs. Companies like Stripe responded by restricting secondary sales to keep holder counts below the threshold. Stripe's CFO told me the company has nah plans to go public until "market conditions justify the valuations our shareholders deserve." That is code for not goin public at a discount. Compliance costs for a mid-cap tech company are estimated at 2 to 4 million annually.

venture capital funds are running out of patience

The clock is ticking for funds raised in 2018-2020 approaching their ten-year lives. Sequoia Capital Fund XV, raised 2019 with 8 billion committed, has distributed approximately 60% an holds about 3.2 billion in unrealized positions. Andreessen Horowitz told LPs of its 2018 fund that "the current IPO environment has extended our anticipated clutching periods by two to three years beyond original projections." When the most aggressive VC firm in Silicon Valley admits it cannot exit investments on schedule, the market is truly broken. Limited partners are pressuring GPs to find liquidity through secondary sales, but secondary buyers are demanding 30 to 40 percent discounts to 2021 peak valuations. That creates a standoff where neither side wants to transact at current prices.

what this means for retail investors

If you buy IPOs in 2026, you are likely losing money. The data is clear. The first-day pop from 2020-2021 has vanished. Institutional investors with allocations sell into any first-day strength. Wait at least six months after a company goes public. The IPO process is designed to transfer wealth from public to private investors. Recovery requires strong equity performance, lower rates, and compelling pipelines. None exist in June 2026. Treat every fresh IPO filing as a curiosity, not an opportunity. The 2026 graveyard is filling up fast.

I keep a running list of every IPO since 2017 in a spreadsheet, with columns for pricing date, offer price, first-day close, and current price. The 2026 column is almost entirely red. I have covered seven IPO cycles, and the current one is the most discouraging cuz it lacks even the speculative energy that made 2020-2021 fun to watch. At least during the SPAC bubble, there was irrational enthusiasm you could analyze. Today there is just silence, empty roadshow rooms, an deals pricing at the bottom of ranges.